We’ve been watching for a pattern change that might cool things down, but unfortunately, changes in the forecast are going the wrong direction.
The rest of the week we’re hot and dry with temperatures in the mid 100’s. Heat index values shouldn’t be too high as we won’t be terribly humid, but we’ll still likely crack 108°-110° most of the rest of the week so the Excessive Heat Warning is definitely warranted. That warning goes until 8:00 pm tonight – at least, until it’s extended through tomorrow (Friday) night at 8:00 pm (NWS is taking it one day at a time). Expect these excessive heat warnings to likely run through Sunday night at 8:00 pm.
The next phase of the forecast period is what everyone’s been waiting for. A cold front will make its way into North Texas (at least south of the Red River), but just how far south it will go is uncertain. If you ask me, I think it makes it as far south as I-30 (if that) and stalls. We’ll be on the south side, so I don’t expect much of a cool-down – just what we’re allotted by the high pressure dome shifting westward. Overall I think we still reach 100°…but won’t be as hot as we have been this week. Rain chances will be small, but also depend on how far south the front makes it. Stationary fronts do tend to kick off storms, so we could see some activity late Monday and Tuesday – with better chances closest to the front. So, yes, our “cool-down” has kinda faded away…but there is still some hope for a few drops of rain.
We’re right back to the mid 100’s Wednesday as the front lifts back northward and high pressure returns, but models do suggest another “cool” front may be on the way late next week…though even the GFS model has it stalling out north of us and then lifting away within a day or so. If one of these fronts would stall and camp out over North Texas, that would raise our rain chances – but this time of year, southerly flow is strong enough to kick them out pretty quickly. That said…keep the faith! In a couple of weeks we’ll be getting into the latter half of August when we start gradually cooling down into Fall (Meteorological Fall starts September 1).
