Today will be a mix of dangerous weather, but that will subside behind the cold front to make for a nice week.
We are starting out with temperatures around 80° this morning, but will warm up to the upper 90’s this afternoon with high humidity driving heat index values well into the 100’s. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7:00 pm. We should stay dry throughout the daytime hours, though there is a low chance an outflow boundary from the disturbance to our northwest could produce an outflow boundary – if it does, that could spark a few storms in our area this afternoon. Overall, though, the likelihood of that happening is pretty small – so we should be calm until tonight.
A cold front is slowly making it way southwestward toward our area. It’s 71° right now (as I’m typing this) in Wichita Falls behind the front, and 76° in Bowie ahead of it. As the front gets closer, storms will spark across North Texas – and could quickly become severe. I think storms will likely start up between 8:00-10:00 pm (this timing may be refined through the day). It looks as if storms will start out more scattered, which would introduce more of a large hail and isolated tornado threat, but once they congeal into a solid line, the main threat shifts to damaging winds. The air over North-Central Texas is very unstable, and set for storms to quickly become severe. Isolated flooding could become an issue as well, though I don’t expect widespread flooding across our area. It will be a night to stay tuned in to South Metro Weather for updates and live coverage.
We may have some showers/thunderstorms could persist into the early morning hours tomorrow, but any activity behind the front should be below severe levels. Dry air will filter in from the northwest, making the remainder of the day tomorrow pleasant with highs in the mid-upper 80’s and a north wind.
From there on out, we gradually warm up to the low 90’s by the end of the week with winds shifting to the east, then southeast by the weekend. We shouldn’t get above the low 90’s this week, which isn’t far from the average or “normal” of 87°-88° for this part of September. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60’s.